AUGUST 3 follow-up to post “It’s a horse race:” what a difference 6 days make. 538’s revised map now has the projected Electoral College votes at 311.2 for HRC and 226.4 for DJT, with Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson getting the final 0.4.
A combination of factors come into play: the anticipated Convention Bounce (or bump as we dubbed it in our the initial post); DJT’s response to Khizr Khan’s DNC address ; and GOP’s internecine squabbles (e.g. DJT’s refusal to endorse Paul Ryan’s in his upcoming primary election, among others).
All the battleground states – including North Carolina – are now in the Democratic Party candidate’s column.
— Jon Winet
[graphic: August 3, 2016 10:40 CDT screenshot from 538.]